Hey it's Slav
The state labor department published its annual rent survey last week.
Rents in Mat-Su rose 13 percent over March of last year, the fastest increase anywhere in Alaska. The Kenai Peninsula came second at 11 percent, and the statewide median rose 2.6.
The strange part is on the supply side.
The Valley is building more housing than anywhere in Alaska. Last year the state hit a ten year high for new construction, 2,261 units, and Mat-Su accounted for 40 percent of that increase.
So the borough building the most housing in Alaska is also the borough where rents climbed the fastest. The report sets those two facts next to each other and offers no explanation. So here's mine.
The building isn't loosening the Valley market because it isn't catching up to who keeps arriving. Anchorage prices push families out, the Valley absorbs them, and the new units are spoken for before they soften anything. Supply only lowers rent when it outruns demand. Right now it's chasing it.
So what does a 13% year actually take out of a Valley household?
If you rent in the Valley, the renewal is where this whole thing lands on you.
When it comes, ask for two years at a smaller bump instead of one year at the market number. In a market this tight, a landlord will often trade rate for certainty, and you just bought yourself a year of not doing this again.
If you aren’t a landlord but want to be, just click the reply button.
If you own a rental out there, you're the other side of this page. 13% is your number too, and the same tightness that hands you a rent bump is what makes a good tenant worth keeping below market.
-Slav
What I'm watching next: whether the Valley's building pace finally catches the migration, or whether 2027 reads like this one.
The clocks:
Oct 4: last day to register to vote in the Nov 3 Mat-Su borough election.
Nov 3: Mat-Su ballot measure pairing a 1 percent areawide sales tax with a $75,000 exemption on your primary residence, worth roughly $700 a year off a typical property tax bill. It does not stack if you already have a senior or disabled veteran exemption.
End of October: Anchorage's wildfire service area recommendations go to the Assembly.
The source, if you want to read it yourself:
https://www.newsminer.com/news/local_news/state-report-rents-increase-across-alaska-2-in-fairbanks/article_b2d485cb-b468-4a26-a9f4-eff4240c72b3.html